Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Utah › Utah State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah State Senate District 1
Sandall is very likely to win: Sandall wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bigler (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sandall (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+44.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+54 to R+36
- Partisan lean
- R+57
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sandall is very likely to win: Sandall wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bigler (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sandall (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+50.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+63 to R+38
- Partisan lean
- R+57
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Claudia Bigler
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Sandall
- Experience
- State legislature
Forward
Julie Quinlan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Utah state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.05 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.05 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+57: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 118,198
- People per km²
- 5
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 10%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
54,437 two-party votes · R+56.7 · R+55.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.4%
Kamala Harris (D)21.6%
2022
32,597 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Scott Sandall (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
27,445 votes · D+29.5✓ Luz Escamilla (D)64.7%
Jim Whited (R)35.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
49,214 two-party votes · R+59.1 · R+63.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.5%
Joe Biden (D)20.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
20,329 votes · D+17.6✓ Luz Escamilla (D)58.8%
Fred C Johnson (R)41.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
26,471 two-party votes · R+63.3 · R+65.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)81.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)18.4%