Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Utah › Utah State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah State Senate District 13
Catten is very likely to win: Catten wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Catten (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mahoney (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+54.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+43 to D+65
- Partisan lean
- D+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Catten is very likely to win: Catten wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Catten (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mahoney (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+59.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+47 to D+73
- Partisan lean
- D+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Utah state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.79 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+41: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 95,094
- People per km²
- 1,632
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 4%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
41,844 two-party votes · D+40.3 · D+41.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)70.1%
Donald Trump (R)29.9%
2022
31,092 votes · D+43.5✓ Nate Blouin (D)71.8%
Roger L Stout (R)28.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
63,825 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jake Anderegg (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
44,307 two-party votes · D+41.0 · D+36.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)70.5%
Donald Trump (R)29.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
39,645 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jake Anderegg (R)98.6%
[Write-in] (—)1.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
27,557 two-party votes · D+39.8 · D+37.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)69.9%
Donald Trump (R)30.1%