Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon › Oregon State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oregon State Senate District 17
FusionReynolds is very likely to win: Reynolds wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Reynolds (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chee (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+61.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+52 to D+71
- Partisan lean
- D+64
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Reynolds is very likely to win: Reynolds wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Reynolds (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chee (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+66.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+54 to D+80
- Partisan lean
- D+64
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Two-thirds quorum
Each chamber needs two-thirds of its members present to do business, so a minority holding more than a third of seats can block votes by walking out. Members with ten unexcused absences in a session cannot run for re-election (Measure 113).
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Lisa Reynolds
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
John Chee
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Oregon state offices
- −2.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+6.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.36 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+64: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 125,575
- People per km²
- 1,077
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 67%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 3%
- Asian 17%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
68,544 two-party votes · D+64.2 · D+65.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)82.1%
Donald Trump (R)17.9%
2022
59,110 votes · D+58.1✓ Elizabeth Steiner Hayward (D)78.9%
John Verbeek (R)20.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
70,127 two-party votes · D+63.9 · D+59.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)81.9%
Donald Trump (R)18.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
47,878 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Elizabeth Steiner Hayward (D)97.7%
Writein (—)2.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
64,489 two-party votes · D+57.2 · D+55.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)78.6%
Donald Trump (R)21.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
46,374 votes · D+32.3✓ Elizabeth Steinerhayward (D)66.2%
John Verbeek (R)33.8%