Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.
Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.
Hawaii · Hawaii's 1st District · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024
2026 race · Hawaii's 1st District
<1% chance of winning · race rated Solid D
Background
Links: FEC filings · Candidate list (source)