Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
Washington › Washington House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Washington Legislative District 45
2 seatsTop twoGoodman is very likely to win: Goodman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Goodman (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Tolentino (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+47.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+38 to D+57
- Partisan lean
- D+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Goodman is very likely to win: Goodman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Goodman (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Tolentino (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+48.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+36 to D+61
- Partisan lean
- D+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Two House positions per district
Each of the 49 districts elects one senator and two representatives, who run for separate positions (1 and 2). The forecast treats each position as its own race.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Roger Goodman
- Experience
- State legislature
Democratic
Vanessa Kritzer
Republican
JoAnn Tolentino
Republican
John Gibbons
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Washington state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.23 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 16.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 16.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+46: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 160,945
- People per km²
- 600
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 70%
- White, no degree
- 21%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 1%
- Asian 25%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
129,808 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Roger Goodman (D)45.0%
✓ Larry Springer (D)29.5%
Melissa Demyan (D)22.5%
Write-In (—)3.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
78,756 two-party votes · D+46.2 · D+47.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)73.1%
Donald Trump (R)26.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
101,394 two-party votes · D+45.6 · D+41.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.8%
Donald Trump (R)27.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
73,727 two-party votes · D+40.5 · D+38.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)70.2%
Donald Trump (R)29.8%
Neighboring districts
LD-1Davina DuerrMaggie Wang2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. LD-5Zach HallMichelle Bennett2 seats>99%Dem.98%Dem. LD-12Stacy WilloughbyBrian BurnettD flipD flip2 seats74%Dem.77%Dem. LD-41Janice ZahnElle Nguyen2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. LD-44Brandy DonaghyChris Elder2 seats>99%Dem.99%Dem. LD-46Gerry Pollet—D vs D2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. LD-48Osman SalahuddinJeffery Poppe2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem.