Democratic
Sarah Slattery
Small business owner, professional chef, and candidate for state legislature in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
Nebraska › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nebraska Secretary of State
Petersen is very likely to win: Petersen wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Slattery (D)
3%
chance of winning
Petersen (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Petersen is clearly favored to win: Petersen wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Slattery (D)
18%
chance of winning
Petersen (R)
82%
- Average margin
- R+9.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Scott Petersen
Businessman and member of the state party's executive committee
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nebraska state offices
- +0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.2Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,978,707
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
934,811 two-party votes · R+20.8 · R+19.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Kamala Harris (D)39.6%
2022
500,342 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bob Evnen (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this state
931,429 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+24.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Joe Biden (D)40.2%
2018
670,614 votes · R+21.3✓ Bob Evnen (R)60.6%
Spencer Danner (D)39.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
780,455 two-party votes · R+27.1 · R+29.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.5%