Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › North Dakota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota Legislative District 47
Dwyer is very likely to win: Dwyer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Patrie (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Dwyer (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Dwyer is very likely to win: Dwyer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Patrie (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Dwyer (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Bill Patrie
RepublicanIncumbent
Michael Dwyer
Incumbent senator
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.83 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+38: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 15,162
- People per km²
- 465
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
9,254 two-party votes · R+37.7 · R+36.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.9%
Kamala Harris (D)31.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
5,535 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mike Dwyer (R)97.8%
Write-In (—)2.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,146 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+43.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Joe Biden (D)30.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
8,809 votes · R+33.9✓ Mike Dwyer (R)66.9%
Brandi Jude (D)33.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,895 two-party votes · R+47.1 · R+49.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.5%
2014 Earlier district lines
7,122 votes · R+34.5✓ Ralph Kilzer (R)67.2%
Bradley Bergstad (D)32.8%