Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Delaware › Delaware State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Delaware State Senate District 5
Frisby is very likely to win: Frisby wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Frisby (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Burdge (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Frisby is very likely to win: Frisby wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Frisby (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Burdge (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+27 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Shay Frisby
State social services supervisor
- Experience
- Local office
DemocraticIncumbentCandidate
Raymond Seigfried
Incumbent state senator
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Brent Burdge
Independent
Carolyn Frank
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Delaware state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.12 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 47,414
- People per km²
- 1,122
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 50%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 14%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 special
5,807 votes · D+30.5✓ Ray Seigfried (D)65.1%
Brent Burdge (R)34.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
23,888 two-party votes · D+32.3 · D+33.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.2%
Donald Trump (R)33.8%
2022
15,799 votes · D+32.6✓ Kyle Evans Gay (D)66.3%
Daniel R Schmick (R)33.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
25,758 votes · D+4.6✓ Kyle Evans Gay (D)52.3%
Catherine A Cloutier (R)47.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,200 two-party votes · D+35.7 · D+31.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.9%
Donald Trump (R)32.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,405 two-party votes · D+27.2 · D+25.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.6%
Donald Trump (R)36.4%