District of Columbia › District of Columbia Council · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Raj is very likely to win: Raj wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Raj is very likely to win: Raj wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
From 2026, voters rank up to five candidates in races with three or more candidates. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Four Council members are elected citywide, two at a time. No more than two of them may belong to the same party, so parties nominate one candidate per election and one of the two seats on the ballot usually goes to an independent or minor-party candidate.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
Lean D+90: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.