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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Delaware › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Delaware Treasurer

Lauzen is very likely to win: Lauzen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Lauzen (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Ramone (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+22.1
80% of outcomes
D+14 to D+31
Partisan lean
D+16
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Lauzen is very likely to win: Lauzen wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Lauzen (D)
99%
chance of winning
Ramone (R)
1%
Average margin
D+25.9
80% of outcomes
D+13 to D+40
Partisan lean
D+16
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

D+22.1R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+25.9R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Lauzen >99%Ramone <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Lauzen 99%Ramone 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Delaware state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+25.3Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+21.8Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Delaware andlook-alike placesD+22.5Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+22.1Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+26.0

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-3.48
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+12.0D+9.8 vs. nation2020 presidentD+19.3D+14.7 vs. nation2024 presidentD+15.0D+16.5 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
1,021,191
Adults with a B.A.+
36%
White, no degree
39%of adults
  • White 58%
  • Hispanic 11%
  • Black 21%
  • Asian 4%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

504,109 two-party votes · D+15.0 · D+16.5 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.5%
Donald Trump (R)42.5%

2022

317,745 votes · D+7.3
✓ Colleen Davis (D)53.6%
Greg Coverdale (R)46.4%

2020 President Vote in this state

496,871 two-party votes · D+19.3 · D+14.7 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%

2018

357,542 votes · D+6.6
✓ Colleen Davis (D)52.4%
Kenneth A Simpler (R)45.9%
David B Chandler (OTH)1.8%

2016 President Vote in this state

420,730 two-party votes · D+12.0 · D+9.8 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%

Also on the ballot in Delaware

U.S. SenateChris CoonsMichael Katz99%Dem.99%Dem.