99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

New York · New York Assembly District 23 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Thomas Sullivan

RepublicanFusion

Candidate for this district in 2024

2026 race · New York Assembly District 23

40% chance of winning · race rated Lean D

60%40%

68% chance of winning · race rated Lean R

33%68%
● Pesach Osina● Thomas Sullivan
Full race forecast

Background

Experience
No elected office
Past races on file
4 (0 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in New York, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2024

    State Assembly · AD-23 Nov 5, 2024

    R · 48.3% · 22,667 votes

    Lost
  2. 2022

    State Assembly · AD-23 Nov 8, 2022

    R · 50.0% · 16,170 votes

    Lost
  3. 2020

    State Senate · SD-15 Nov 3, 2020

    R · 41.7% · 49,306 votes

    Lost
  4. 2018

    State Senate · SD-15 Nov 6, 2018

    R · 35.9% · 26,281 votes

    Lost

Fundraising

Raised
$45.8K
From individuals
$45.4K
Spent
$286.2K
Public matching funds
$299.4K
Small donors (≤$250)
65% of individual money
Contributions
412

Money: NYS Board of Elections, through Sep 28, 2026.

Top contributors
  1. Peter Castellana · $1K
  2. Alida Genovese · $1K
  3. Ursula Sullivan · $1K
  4. Catherine OConnor · $870
  5. Lonni Kehoe · $750

Opponents in 2026