99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Pennsylvania · Pennsylvania's 5th District · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Mary Gay Scanlon

DemocraticIncumbent

Incumbent U.S. representative

2026 race · Pennsylvania's 5th District

>99% chance of winning · race rated Solid D

>99%<1%

>99% chance of winning · race rated Solid D

>99%<1%
● Mary Gay ScanlonINC● Nicholas Manganaro
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
Pennsylvania's 5th District
Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Past races on file
4 (4 won)

Links: Wikipedia · FEC filings · Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in Pennsylvania, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2024

    U.S. House · PA-5 Nov 5, 2024

    D · 65.3% · 267,739 votes

    Won
  2. 2022

    U.S. House · PA-5 Nov 8, 2022

    D · 65.0% · 204,612 votes

    Won
  3. 2020

    U.S. House · PA-5 Nov 3, 2020

    D · 64.6% · 254,844 votes

    Won
  4. 2018

    U.S. House · PA-5 Nov 6, 2018

    D · 65.2% · 198,639 votes

    Won

Fundraising

Raised
$1.3M
From individuals
$686.1K
Spent
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$459.5K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Opponents in 2026