99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Texas · Texas's 4th District · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Jason Pearce

Democratic

Construction project manager

2026 race · Texas's 4th District

1% chance of winning · race rated Solid R

1%99%

5% chance of winning · race rated Likely R

5%95%
● Jason Pearce● Pat FallonINC
Full race forecast

Background

Experience
No elected office

Links: FEC filings · Candidate list (source)

Fundraising

Raised
$16.3K
From individuals
$7.5K
Spent
$14.2K
Cash on hand
$2.1K

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Opponents in 2026