99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Minnesota · Minnesota Senate District 54 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Ben Bakeberg

Republican

2026 race · Minnesota Senate District 54

64% chance of winning · race rated Lean R

36%64%

49% chance of winning · race rated Toss-up

51%49%
● Rick Olson● Ben Bakeberg
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
Minnesota House of Representatives, HD-54B
Past races on file
2 (2 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in Minnesota, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2024

    House of Representatives · HD-54B Nov 5, 2024

    R · 62.0% · 15,807 votes

    Won
  2. 2022

    House of Representatives · HD-54B Nov 8, 2022

    R · 60.7% · 12,317 votes

    Won

Opponents in 2026