99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

California · California Senate District 34 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Avelino Valencia

DemocraticTop two

2026 race · California Senate District 34

>99% chance of winning · race rated Solid D

>99%<1%

98% chance of winning · race rated Solid D

98%2%
● Avelino Valencia● Rhonda Shader
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
California State Assembly, AD-68
Past races on file
2 (2 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in California, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2024

    State Assembly · AD-68 Nov 5, 2024

    D · 63.7% · 84,228 votes

    Won
  2. 2022

    State Assembly · AD-68 Nov 8, 2022

    D · 62.3% · 49,385 votes

    Won

Opponents in 2026