Democratic
Quentin Wilson
Former director of the Missouri Department of Revenue
- Experience
- No elected office
Missouri › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri Auditor
Fitzpatrick is clearly favored to win: Fitzpatrick wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Wilson (D)
11%
chance of winning
Fitzpatrick (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+8.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- 1in our database
Fitzpatrick is favored to win: Fitzpatrick wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Wilson (D)
29%
chance of winning
Fitzpatrick (R)
71%
- Average margin
- R+4.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Fitzpatrick
Incumbent state auditor of Missouri (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Missouri state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.88 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.88 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Wilson | Fitzpatrick | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Saint Louis University | Aug 13–Aug 24 | 449 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | R+1.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 24, 2026.
The state
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,191,814
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 11%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,952,585 two-party votes · R+18.7 · R+17.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Kamala Harris (D)40.7%
2022
2,051,781 votes · R+22.5✓ Scott Fitzpatrick (R)59.4%
Alan Green (D)37.6%
John A Hartwig Jr (L)3.0%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,971,750 two-party votes · R+15.7 · R+20.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.8%
Joe Biden (D)42.2%
2018
2,399,965 votes · D+6.1✓ Nicole Galloway (D)50.4%
Saundra McDowell (R)44.6%
Sean O'Toole (L)2.1%
Jacob Luetkemeyer (OTH)2.1%
Don Fitz (OTH)0.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,665,579 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+21.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.2%