99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

New York · New York Senate District 4 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Monica Martinez

DemocraticOn 2 ballot lines: Democratic, Working Families.IncumbentFusion

Incumbent senator

2026 race · New York Senate District 4

99% chance of winning · race rated Solid D

99%1%

94% chance of winning · race rated Likely D

94%6%
● Monica MartinezINC● Brianne R. Wakefield
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
New York State Senate, SD-4 · since 2018 2020 (lost) 2022
First elected
2018 2020 (lost) 2022
Experience
State legislature
Past races on file
4 (3 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in New York, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2024

    State Senate · SD-4 Nov 5, 2024

    D · 56.5% · 62,016 votes

    Won
  2. 2022

    State Senate · SD-4 Nov 8, 2022

    D · 51.4% · 37,173 votes

    Won
  3. 2020

    State Senate · SD-3 Nov 3, 2020

    D · 48.1% · 63,286 votes

    Lost
  4. 2018

    State Senate · SD-3 Nov 6, 2018

    D · 51.6% · 49,160 votes

    Won

Fundraising

Raised
$472.7K
From individuals
$137.4K
Spent
$513.5K
Small donors (≤$250)
14% of individual money
Contributions
814

Money: NYS Board of Elections, through Sep 28, 2026.

Top contributors
  1. SMART Local Union 28 · $8K
  2. IBEW New York PAC · $8K
  3. Suffolk County Correction Officers Assoc · $6K
  4. International Union of Operating Enginee · $6K
  5. IAFF FIREPAC New York Non-Federal · $5K

Opponents in 2026